President 2008 - Its Almost Here
It seems like it couldn't possibly be time for people to begin running for President again, but with late breaking news that John Edwards is announcing he is in and with other candidates close to deciding to jump in or already in that time is here. Of course we in Illinois, (national poll results over the past few months show) the big question is will Barack Obama run for President? In poll after poll when Obama is included he runs second and his name identification is lower than Clinton. Hillary has stayed between 30 - 40% for most of the past year. As Obama slipped into the picture her numbers began to decline to the lower part of that range.
Conventional wisdom tells us that a politician has to strike while the iron is hot. Obama is a very popular person today. Waiting four years could blow the opportunity of a lifetime. If a Democrat wins then it is an eight year wait. Running for President with a ten year record in the U.S. Senate makes the challenge much more difficult. I think Obama should be deciding if he wants to be President and if the answer is yes, its time to run. Even if he doesn't win, he is a Vice-Presidential favorite. Win or lose it positions him to be the front runner the next time the seat is open.
For the true political junkie this is an exciting time. There are some really good people considering running and some we think might be good, but don't know much about. Here are the results from a poll a couple of weeks ago. Its not going to be long before talk of Iowa and New Hampshire dominate the national political news. But what is new for 2008 is that the order in the incredably important front end of the process is Iowa Caucus, Nevada Caucus, New Hampshire primary closely followed by the South Carolina primary will change the dynamic. It could make it more of a race and will provide African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans to have a greater voice in the all important initial stages.
The following is a poll that probably more accurately gives an estimate of the candidates name ID rather than there chance of winning, but it is interesting.
CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Dec. 5-7, 2006. N=612 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or independents who lean to the Democratic Party. MoE ± 4.
"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . ." (Names rotated)
| Date Poll Taken | 12/5-7/06 | 11/17-19/06 | 10/27-30/06 | 8/30-9/02/06 |
| CANDIDATE | % | % | % | % |
| Hillary Clinton | 37 | 33 | 28 | 38 |
| Barack Obama | 15 | 15 | 17 | n/a |
| Al Gore | 14 | 14 | 13 | 19 |
| John Edwards | 9 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| John Kerry | 7 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| Joe Biden | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Bill Richardson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Wesley Clark | 2 | 4 | n/a | n/a |
| Evan Bayh | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tom Vilsack | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Unsure | 10 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| Russ Feingold | n/a | n/a | 2 | 3 |
| Mark Warner | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3 |
