Democratic Party - 49th Ward

President 2008 - Its Almost Here

It seems like it couldn't possibly be time for people to begin running for President again, but with late breaking news that John Edwards is announcing he is in and with other candidates close to deciding to jump in or already in that time is here.  Of course we in Illinois, (national poll results over the past few months show) the big question is will Barack Obama run for President?  In poll after poll when Obama is included he runs second and his name identification is lower than Clinton.  Hillary has stayed between 30 - 40% for most of the past year.  As Obama slipped into the picture her numbers began to decline to the lower part of that range.

Conventional wisdom tells us that a politician has to strike while the iron is hot.  Obama is a very popular person today.   Waiting four years could blow the opportunity of a lifetime.  If a Democrat wins then it is an eight year wait.  Running for President with a ten year record in the U.S. Senate makes the challenge much more difficult.  I think Obama should be deciding if he wants to be President and if the answer is yes, its time to run.  Even if he doesn't win, he is a Vice-Presidential favorite.  Win or lose it positions him to be the front runner the next time the seat is open.

For the true political junkie this is an exciting time.  There are some really good people considering running and some we think might be good, but don't know much about.  Here are the results from a poll a couple of weeks ago.  Its not going to be long before talk of Iowa and New Hampshire dominate the national political news.  But what is new for 2008 is that the order in the incredably important front end of the process is Iowa Caucus, Nevada Caucus, New Hampshire primary closely followed by the South Carolina primary will change the dynamic.  It could make it more of a race and will provide African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans to have a greater voice in the all important initial stages.

The following is a poll that probably more accurately gives an estimate of the candidates name ID rather than there chance of winning, but it is interesting.

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Dec. 5-7, 2006. N=612 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or independents who lean to the Democratic Party. MoE ± 4.             

    
"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . ." (Names rotated)

 

                                                                                                                                                     

Date   Poll Taken	12/5-7/06	11/17-19/06	10/27-30/06	8/30-9/02/06
CANDIDATE	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	37	33	28	38
Barack Obama	15	15	17	n/a
Al Gore	14	14	13	19
John Edwards	9	14	13	12
John Kerry	7	7	12	9
Joe Biden	2	3	2	3
Bill Richardson	2	3	2	3
Wesley Clark	2	4	n/a	n/a
Evan Bayh	1	2	2	2
Tom Vilsack	1	1	1	0
Unsure	10	4	8	8
Russ Feingold	n/a	n/a	2	3
Mark Warner	n/a	n/a	n/a	3

December 25, 2006

Merry

Christmas!

to you and all of your loved ones.

The Field is Set and the Ballot Order is In

The first stage is done and like 255 other Chicagoans the four candidates for 49th Ward Alderman now moves on to the important stuff: What are they going to do if they are fortunate enough to get elected?  The lottery for ballot position was drawn today.  Since all of the candidates filed on the first day at 9:00 am, one with what is presumed to be a very duck(?) outfit, they were all in the lottery for first ballot position.  The Chicago Board of Elections determines the order.  The ballot order, as a result of the Chicago Board of Elections lottery will be as follows: Moore, Gordon, Ginderske, Adams.  Historically, being first is best, being last is second best, second and third is not much different, but worse than first or last.  Interestingly, that is by some people’s conventional wisdom, the order in which the candidates will finish in February.  I wish the best of luck to those running.  One can only hope that on February 27th the people in the ward will be the winners.

So what about the other races? There are races in 47 wards.  Three Alderman are unopposed, Manny Flores (1rst), Tom Tunney (44th) and Tom Allen (38th).  There are some races with one-on-ones and some with as many as 15 candidates, (15th).  Are ward having 4 candidates is fairly average.  There are at least two good candidates in the race for Mayor and maybe three.  There seems to be little doubt by political people and media that Daley will win, but he is actually the one with the lowest number of petitions in the race.  Petition signatures don’t equal votes, but they do reflect the strength of the candidate’s organization and to a lesser degree their commitment to winning.  An exciting race for mayor could be a great boost for turnout across the city while a race that is no contest will drive turnout down.

The race for the City Clerk has drawn a large field, but who are these people beyond DelValle?  The race for Treasurer is the newly appointed incumbent and one other candidate.  Again, who are these people?

This election likely marks the beginning of the end for the old fashion ward/mayor organizations based on patronage and the beginning of a new era.  Expect much greater union participation, both in volunteers and donations, as SEIU, the Change to Win Coalition, and the Chicago Federation of Labor step up their participation and try to put hundreds of their members into the field for candidates that support their policies and members.  Even the Chamber of Commerce is trying to get involved and a well placed source has it they are flirting with not one, but two Joe Moore opponents.

It is the holiday season.  The next 9 to 10 days will be quite.  But, starting January 3rd, expect that candidates will be coming from all four corners, non-stop for 57 days in a sprint to the February 27th finish line.

There is no doubt here, I am supporting Joe Moore. 

Go Joe!